Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Friday 03 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
France 5387 (+1355) 59105 (+2116) 12428 (+1493) 41290 (-732)
Spain 10348 (+961) 112065 (+7947) 26743 (+4096) 74974 (+2890)
United States 5883 (+784) 244230 (+29591) 10403 (+1525) 227944 (+27282)
Italy 13915 (+760) 115242 (+4668) 18278 (+1431) 83049 (+2477)
United Kingdom 2921 (+569) 33718 (+4244) 135 (+0) 30662 (+3675)
Belgium 1011 (+183) 15348 (+1384) 2495 (+363) 11842 (+838)
Germany 1107 (+176) 84794 (+6813) 22440 (+3740) 61247 (+2897)
Netherlands 1339 (+166) 14697 (+1083) 250 (+0) 13108 (+917)
Iran 3160 (+124) 50468 (+2875) 16711 (+1238) 30597 (+1513)
Brazil 324 (+82) 8044 (+1164) 127 (+0) 7593 (+1082)
Turkey 356 (+79) 18135 (+2456) 415 (+82) 17364 (+2295)
Sweden 308 (+69) 5568 (+621) 103 (+0) 5157 (+552)
Canada 173 (+59) 11283 (+1552) 1979 (+243) 9131 (+1250)
Switzerland 536 (+48) 18827 (+1059) 4013 (+1046) 14278 (-35)
Algeria 86 (+28) 986 (+139) 61 (+0) 839 (+111)
Romania 115 (+23) 2738 (+278) 267 (+15) 2356 (+240)
Ecuador 120 (+22) 3163 (+405) 65 (+7) 2978 (+376)
Portugal 209 (+22) 9034 (+783) 68 (+25) 8757 (+736)
Denmark 123 (+19) 3386 (+279) 1089 (+195) 2174 (+65)
Peru 55 (+17) 1414 (+91) 537 (+143) 822 (-69)
Poland 57 (+14) 2946 (+392) 56 (+0) 2833 (+378)
India 72 (+14) 2543 (+545) 191 (+43) 2280 (+488)
Indonesia 170 (+13) 1790 (+113) 112 (+9) 1508 (+91)
Ireland 98 (+13) 3849 (+402) 5 (+0) 3746 (+389)
Austria 158 (+12) 11129 (+418) 1749 (+313) 9222 (+93)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 49664 (+5789) 932704 (+79433) 135610 (+17859)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 59031 ( +7634) 1120714 ( +130124) 160206 ( +22598)
Sat 04 April 2020 67798 ( +8768) 1267932 ( +147217) 186515 ( +26308)
Sun 05 April 2020 77868 ( +10070) 1434487 ( +166556) 217143 ( +30629)
Mon 06 April 2020 89433 ( +11565) 1622922 ( +188435) 252802 ( +35658)
Tue 07 April 2020 102716 ( +13283) 1836110 ( +213187) 294316 ( +41514)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 3318 (+6) 81589 (+35) 76408 (+170)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 3250 ( +0) 80988 ( +0) 75034 ( +88)
Sat 04 April 2020 3250 ( +0) 80988 ( +0) 75110 ( +77)
Sun 05 April 2020 3251 ( +0) 80988 ( +0) 75177 ( +67)
Mon 06 April 2020 3251 ( +0) 80988 ( +0) 75235 ( +58)
Tue 07 April 2020 3251 ( +0) 80988 ( +0) 75285 ( +50)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 10348 (+961) 112065 (+7947) 26743 (+4096)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 10769 ( +619) 116574 ( +5882) 29174 ( +2950)
Sat 04 April 2020 11294 ( +525) 121748 ( +5174) 31870 ( +2696)
Sun 05 April 2020 11729 ( +436) 126228 ( +4480) 34250 ( +2380)
Mon 06 April 2020 12084 ( +355) 130054 ( +3826) 36289 ( +2038)
Tue 07 April 2020 12370 ( +285) 133285 ( +3231) 37988 ( +1700)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 13915 (+760) 115242 (+4668) 18278 (+1431)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 14280 ( +558) 116438 ( +2939) 18745 ( +923)
Sat 04 April 2020 14776 ( +496) 119008 ( +2571) 19598 ( +853)
Sun 05 April 2020 15213 ( +437) 121242 ( +2233) 20377 ( +779)
Mon 06 April 2020 15594 ( +381) 123170 ( +1928) 21081 ( +704)
Tue 07 April 2020 15923 ( +329) 124826 ( +1656) 21711 ( +631)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 5883 (+784) 244230 (+29591) 10403 (+1525)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 7656 ( +1552) 308290 ( +48944) 14353 ( +3342)
Sat 04 April 2020 9603 ( +1947) 366471 ( +58181) 18710 ( +4357)
Sun 05 April 2020 12045 ( +2443) 435633 ( +69162) 24390 ( +5679)
Mon 06 April 2020 15109 ( +3064) 517847 ( +82214) 31793 ( +7403)
Tue 07 April 2020 18952 ( +3843) 615576 ( +97729) 41444 ( +9651)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 5387 (+1355) 59105 (+2116) 12428 (+1493)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 6239 ( +1024) 64385 ( +4409) 15785 ( +2549)
Sat 04 April 2020 7465 ( +1225) 68586 ( +4202) 18825 ( +3039)
Sun 05 April 2020 8931 ( +1466) 72531 ( +3944) 22449 ( +3625)
Mon 06 April 2020 10685 ( +1754) 76181 ( +3651) 26772 ( +4322)
Tue 07 April 2020 12783 ( +2099) 79516 ( +3335) 31926 ( +5155)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 3160 (+124) 50468 (+2875) 16711 (+1238)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 3133 ( +70) 57102 ( +4503) 19207 ( +1538)
Sat 04 April 2020 3193 ( +61) 61990 ( +4889) 20879 ( +1671)
Sun 05 April 2020 3246 ( +52) 67297 ( +5307) 22696 ( +1817)
Mon 06 April 2020 3291 ( +45) 73059 ( +5761) 24671 ( +1975)
Tue 07 April 2020 3329 ( +39) 79313 ( +6255) 26817 ( +2147)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 1107 (+176) 84794 (+6813) 22440 (+3740)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 1408 ( +263) 87191 ( +4153) 29783 ( +6079)
Sat 04 April 2020 1732 ( +323) 90853 ( +3662) 37421 ( +7638)
Sun 05 April 2020 2129 ( +398) 94037 ( +3184) 47019 ( +9597)
Mon 06 April 2020 2618 ( +489) 96770 ( +2733) 59078 ( +12059)
Tue 07 April 2020 3220 ( +601) 99092 ( +2322) 74230 ( +15152)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 2921 (+569) 33718 (+4244) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 3627 ( +726) 41019 ( +6094) 188 ( +14)
Sat 04 April 2020 4534 ( +907) 48176 ( +7158) 203 ( +15)
Sun 05 April 2020 5668 ( +1134) 56583 ( +8407) 219 ( +16)
Mon 06 April 2020 7086 ( +1418) 66456 ( +9873) 236 ( +17)
Tue 07 April 2020 8858 ( +1772) 78053 ( +11596) 255 ( +19)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 308 (+69) 5568 (+621) 103 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 373 ( +74) 5758 ( +416) 164 ( +56)
Sat 04 April 2020 465 ( +92) 6182 ( +424) 250 ( +85)
Sun 05 April 2020 580 ( +115) 6611 ( +429) 379 ( +130)
Mon 06 April 2020 722 ( +143) 7041 ( +430) 576 ( +197)
Tue 07 April 2020 900 ( +178) 7468 ( +428) 876 ( +299)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 1339 (+166) 14697 (+1083) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 1693 ( +274) 15433 ( +820) 250 ( +0)
Sat 04 April 2020 2019 ( +327) 16168 ( +736) 250 ( +0)
Sun 05 April 2020 2409 ( +390) 16819 ( +650) 250 ( +0)
Mon 06 April 2020 2874 ( +465) 17386 ( +567) 250 ( +0)
Tue 07 April 2020 3429 ( +555) 17875 ( +489) 250 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 57 (+14) 2946 (+392) 56 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 64 ( +11) 3100 ( +241) 56 ( +0)
Sat 04 April 2020 78 ( +14) 3328 ( +228) 56 ( +0)
Sun 05 April 2020 94 ( +16) 3539 ( +211) 56 ( +0)
Mon 06 April 2020 114 ( +20) 3730 ( +192) 56 ( +0)
Tue 07 April 2020 138 ( +24) 3902 ( +171) 56 ( +0)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 536 (+48) 18827 (+1059) 4013 (+1046)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 600 ( +59) 18656 ( +476) 5121 ( +1197)
Sat 04 April 2020 657 ( +57) 19049 ( +393) 6683 ( +1562)
Sun 05 April 2020 711 ( +54) 19370 ( +322) 8721 ( +2038)
Mon 06 April 2020 761 ( +50) 19631 ( +261) 11380 ( +2659)
Tue 07 April 2020 807 ( +46) 19842 ( +211) 14851 ( +3470)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 02 April 2020 1011 (+183) 15348 (+1384) 2495 (+363)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 03 April 2020 1299 ( +262) 16660 ( +1197) 3146 ( +556)
Sat 04 April 2020 1626 ( +328) 17757 ( +1098) 3822 ( +676)
Sun 05 April 2020 2037 ( +410) 18743 ( +986) 4643 ( +821)
Mon 06 April 2020 2550 ( +514) 19613 ( +869) 5641 ( +998)
Tue 07 April 2020 3193 ( +643) 20367 ( +754) 6853 ( +1212)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.